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  1. 2 days ago · Four months out from Election Day, the 2024 presidential election is a pure toss-up. Right now, President Joe Biden is favored to win in 465 out of 1,000 of our model’s simulations of how the...

  2. 1 day ago · When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. Statistical model by G. Elliott Morris.

  3. Jun 28, 2018 · Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. Notice any bugs or missing polls? Send us...

  4. 5 days ago · Our model is updated every day and combines state and national polls with economic indicators to predict the election results across the country. To work out the probable electoral-vote totals, we...

  5. 3 days ago · President Joe Biden trails former President Donald Trump six points in a new CNN/SSRS poll taken after their debate Thursday, showing that while most voters think another Democrat would have a ...

  6. 3 days ago · In this installment of the 538 Politics podcast, Galen sits down with Richard Wike, director of Pew’s Global Attitudes Research, and Matthias Matthijs, senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, to talk about whether voters are behaving similarly across the globe.

  7. 3 days ago · Our averages include polls collected by The New York Times and by FiveThirtyEight. The estimates adjust for a variety of factors, including the recency and sample size of a poll, whether a poll...